The State of Oil and Gas: June 15, 2023

Natural gas prices are at $2.53/MMbtu, with a high of $2.59 and a low of $2.16. Most of the time, the price was around $2.25 to $2.35. Drilling rigs are down to 695, a steep drop from 731 last month. Storage is at 2,634 Bcf, still higher than the five year average, but not above the five year high. Weather is still the main driving factor, and the overall temperatures for this summer have been pretty average so far.

The U.S. Forest Service has issued a new Record of Decision, approving the Mountain Valley Pipeline’s crossing of the Jefferson National Forest.

The EIA predicts that natural gas prices will return to more healthy levels before the end of the year. As usual with predictions, it’s the analysis that’s most important.

Oil prices are expected to drop, based mainly on the Chinese economy growing a little less than predicted.

The American Petroleum Institute released numbers showing how much the oil and gas industry contributes annually to the West Virginia economy.

The Institute for Energy Research is suggesting that the Biden Administration only wants permitting reform for green energy projects, and will try to keep other projects (MVP) from benefitting from the new permitting regulations everyone is working on.

WVU Energy Institute is getting a new director, Sam Taylor. His background is in clean and renewable energy, and the Institute is going to be moving in that direction. They’re even changing the name to the WVU Institute for Sustainability and Energy Research. I don’t mind an emphasis on renewables, but shifting a West Virginia institution’s focus from natural gas to renewables doesn’t seem like a great idea.

One investor analyzes the price of natural gas, noting the variables that could affect whether price will go up or down. It’s pretty comprehensive analysis, even including a short discussion of the European variable, which is becoming more important as we export more LNG.

Drillers are auctioning off rigs at fire sale prices.

Joe Manchin published a press release stating that the recent approvals by the Biden Administration regarding the Mountain Valley Pipeline show that the President realizes the MVP is vital for our nation.

Energy Secretary Granholm came out in support of the MVP again.

The Bureau of Land Management has issued a new Record of Decision approving the Mountain Valley Pipeline.

The PA cracker plant will be shut down for a few more weeks, it looks like. I hope they get their issues ironed out. I wouldn’t want to be one of their neighbors right now.

Large swaths of the U.S. could experience blackouts if summer weather hits extremes. If you’d like to read the actual report, it’s here (.pdf warning).

West Virginia’s U.S. House of Representatives member Carol Miller has introduced a new bill that would approve everything needed for the MVP to be built. It’s focused solely on the MVP, and wouldn’t affect any other permitting legislation, or be affected by it. It’s an interesting take.

Everyone who is anyone in West Virginia politics is against the EPA’s new power plant emissions regulations.

The PA cracker plant will pay a $10 million fine for exceeding pollution limits. About $6.2 million of that will go to the local neighborhood in various ways.

SCOTUS reigned in the WOTUS regulations. Essentially, the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) are any navigable waters and waters connected to them. Previously, it was any waters with a nexus to navigable waters. The previous definition was very broad and, I would argue, overly broad. Our waters need protecting, but when you can define waters of the United States in such a way that drainage ditches count, you’re over-regulating.

The Fourth Circuit has remanded FERC’s MVP permit, stating that the FERC had not properly explained its decision to not prepare a supplemental environmental impact statement.

RBNEnergy analyzes the natural gas market trends for the next few months.

It looks like Joe Manchin got permitting language into the debt ceiling bill. Here’s some analysis of the political reasons why it will probably survive and get passed.

Our oil supply is high, so prices are going lower. Haven’t seen this play out at my local gas station yet, but stay tuned.

The MVP will be completed. The debt ceiling bill which includes the MVP permitting language passed the Senate. It’s expected to be completed by the end of 2023.

Saudi Arabia is going to unilaterally (without it’s OPEC+ partners) cut production by 1 million barrels per day in July. They really want to keep the price of oil up.

Exxon thinks that new methods of fracking will increase the amount of oil they capture from any given acre of ground. This isn’t necessarily news, as oil and gas producers are constantly looking for new ways to increase production, but they mention two specific methods, and you don’t usually hear specifically what a company is looking at improving.

RBNEnergy analyzes the MVP permitting language of the debt ceiling legislation. While the MVP is not out of the woods yet, there is some light showing through the trees ahead.

A brine treatment plant (think fracking wastewater) in Fairmont, WV, had an explosion and fire.

Hope Gas is acquiring another asset, about 900 miles worth of pipelines here in West Virginia.

A new natural gas fired power plant has opened in Guernsey County, Ohio. West Virginia needs these.

Saudi Arabia’s unilateral cut in oil production has not increased prices. Traders see weak demand in the near future, so prices are staying down. I’m not complaining.

MVP opponents are already planning a march on D.C. to protest the presumed permitting of the MVP.

Interesting. A company called Clean-Seas has announced that it will build a new facility in West Virginia. This facility will take waste plastics and turn them into fuel, including hydrogen. This will probably help West Virginia get a hydrogen hub.

Oil demand is growing, and oil supply is growing, but not as much as demand.

While the MVP is in the news, other pipelines have been built and often have created problems for landowners. We don’t oppose pipelines, but we definitely make sure to negotiate for protections for our clients who deal with pipelines on their property.

Emboldened by their success in overcoming the MVP’s regulatory hurdles, Senator’s Capito and Manchin have targeted the EPA’s new power plant regulations. Capito has introduced legislation to block them, and Manchin has proposed extending the public comment period by 60 days and doing a public hearing in West Virginia.

Here’s a prediction that we’re going to see an energy crisis of sorts this fall. As usual, predictions aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on, but the analysis can be useful.

MVP has put the 4th Circuit on notice in a court filing that when West Virginia issues a water permit, it will begin construction. And just like that, the permit has been issued.

Encino Energy has suddenly produced an enormous amount of oil from the Utica formation up in Ohio, just north of the northern panhandle of West Virginia. This may be the beginning of a new drilling boom. The technology they used may or may not translate to the Utica in West Virginia. This is something to keep an eye on, though.