The State of Oil and Gas: October 15, 2022

Natural gas prices are at $6.05/MMBtu. That’s as low as prices have been since July, and we didn’t establish a new high this month–the price has pretty consistently gone down. Drilling rigs are at 769, up six from last month. Storage is at 3,231 Bcf, which is a move in the right direction just before storage season ends. We’re still below the five year average, but right between the five year average and the five year low. Last month we were awfully close to the five year low. Those higher storage numbers probably have something to do with the lower price of natural gas.

While the number of drilling rigs has been growing slowly, and even declining (first two weeks of September 2022), the number of drilling rigs focused specifically on natural gas has increased to above pre-pandemic levels.

Is this finally actually going to happen? Will West Virginia finally get a natural gas fired power plant? There have been three announced in the past, two up in the northern panhandle and one in Harrison County, but none of them has even broken ground. We now have an announcement that a company called Competitive Power Ventures will be building one, location undetermined. This article from a Connecticut newspaper (it seems the company is based in CT) has a lot more detail, but is still lacking the location.

The United States has passed the 100 Bcf/d production mark for natural gas for the first time.

Here’s a prediction that this winter will see higher natural gas prices. Take any prediction with a grain of salt because the oil and gas industry is ridiculously unpredictable, but the analysis on this one is worth reading.

Here’s an analysis of U.S. oil production, and the reasons why it’s not growing enough.

The PA cracker plant hasn’t been operating long, and it’s already had an “incident”. A process compressor shut down and the result was flaring and a lot of black smoke. Nothing seems to have been hurt, and it’s no surprise that such a complex plant would have some troubles starting up. Hopefully there won’t be any other issues going forward.

Joe Manchin has introduced legislation that will expedite permitting of the Mountain Valley Pipeline. The legislation has created a lot of discussion, and a good portion of the discussion is included in this article. UPDATE: Joe Manchin has pulled his legislation from the Continuing Resolution it was attached to. The deal is dead, at least for the moment.

Some people are challenging the Mountain Valley Pipeline in another way, attacking eminent domain. Now, I think the MVP should be built. I am, however, not a fan of eminent domain. It has it’s place, but it’s abused and misused at this point in our legal history. A challenge to eminent domain holds a place near and dear to my heart, and if they succeed, I’ll be very happy. MVP will have to deal with landowners in the way it should have years ago, contractually. Will MVP pay more now than it would have years ago? Yes. Should MVP have dealt with these people in a different way? Absolutely yes. It’s the price of business. I have clients who were mistreated by MVP. They should have gone about things differently. Build the pipeline, but treat the landowners right.

Here’s some analysis as to why natural gas prices are so high right now. One reason they don’t mention is that oil and gas CEOs are now incentivized to turn a profit rather than incentivized to produce a lot of gas. That’s a rather recent change in the industry, and will probably dictate the amount of supply for years to come. There will be “balance”, or rather, CEOs will determine how much gas to produce based on what the market can take at a price that provides the highest profit for the company.

President Joe Biden has told gasoline sellers to bring prices down, now. It’s odd, he’s done that once before and pretty much gotten the same response–nothing. The market does what the market’s going to do. Even a person as powerful as the President of the United States can’t just tell the market to do something and expect it to happen.

The State of West Virginia is teaming up with some private companies, including EQT, to bring a hydrogen hub to West Virginia.

The Nord Stream pipeline, which carries natural gas from Russia to Europe, was destroyed. There’s a lot of talk around who did it, but it’s considered highly likely that it was destroyed on purpose by Russia.

If you would like to read a lot more detail about EQT’s acquisition of Tug Hill, RBNEnergy has an article for you.

The major thing that has oil and gas companies troubled is inflation. Join the club. They also have a couple other concerns.

OPEC+ has decided to cut production by 2 million barrels of oil per day. That’s a serious cut, and will increase prices for gasoline.

The number of Drilled but UnCompleted (DUC) wells has gotten to its lowest point since 2014.

Opposition to pipelines in Appalachia has discouraged investment capital in the region.