The State of Oil and Gas: April 15, 2023

Natural gas prices are at $2.28/MMBtu, up a little from last month, and up from a low of $2.02, but not exactly a healthy price. Oil prices are at about $80/bbl, up from about $63/bbl. Drilling rigs are at 748, down six from last month, though they did get up to 758 one week. Gas storage levels are at 1,885 Bcf, and starting to climb as we’re in injection season. We’re still above the five year average, but not at the five year high any more.

Natural gas consumption was up last year according to the EIA.

Ethane demand was up last year, too, which is good for West Virginia because a lot of our gas has ethane which is split off and sent up to the cracker plant in PA.

They’ve had to flare gas at the Shell cracker plant in PA again.

People have been exploring the possibility of using the Marcellus/Utica region for carbon capture and sequestration. Enverus has published a report stating that it would be uneconomical.

Saudi Arabia is still talking about divesting. They want to decrease their reliance on oil exports for revenue. Last year the percentage of their budget that came from oil exports was as high as 79%. They have a long ways to go.

Implementation of the Biden administration’s version of the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule has been stayed by a Federal judge until a Supreme Court decision in Sackett v. EPA has been handed down later this year.

Sempra has given the green light to a new LNG plant in Port Arthur, Texas. It’ll be years before it’s finished, but it will likely use some gas from the Marcellus region. Interestingly, the builder is Bechtel, the same company that was going to build a cracker plant in West Virginia. Too bad they didn’t do that. We could use another cracker plant.

A West Virginia Congresswoman, Carol Miller, has introduced an amendment to H.R. 1, The Lower Energy Costs Act, that will ensure that the Mountain Valley Pipeline gets completed.

Pipeline construction seems to have destroyed a PA man’s property, and the pipeline hasn’t made it right yet. He’s suing. We take care of this kind of thing before any documents are signed, including making sure the space the pipeline can use is very clearly defined. This is also one reason that I hate our eminent domain laws, they give way too much power to a pipeline and not enough control to the landowner.

Here’s an opinion piece published in the Charleston Gazette-Mail which makes an argument in favor of the Mountain Valley Pipeline.

Silicon Valley Bank going into receivership affected everything to some extent, and even touched oil and gas. According to this article, it affected oil prices, but not a lot.

Republicans and Independents support H.R. 1, The Lower Energy Costs Act. No data is provided on Democrats, presumably because they weren’t polled for the survey.

A federal judge has ordered the federal government to resume lease sales in North Dakota.

Here’s an interesting article that focuses on volatility in the oil and gas market.

Researchers at WVU will be looking into methane leaks at storage tanks and ways to mitigate methane loss. Can’t imagine the industry is too upset about that.

The 4th Circuit actually approved a Virginia water permit for the Mountain Valley Pipeline! The 4th Circuit said the state agency followed proper procedures and so it won’t invalidate the permit.

The Marcellus/Utica area produced the most natural gas of any area, but only grew by 1% in 2022, due to pipeline takeaway constraints. Anyone keeping up with this monthly blog post is probably not surprised by either of those facts.

Shell says that emissions at the PA cracker plant are at or below permitted numbers because of greater efficiency than expected in the flaring system. Sure wish they didn’t have to flare as much as they do. Such a waste.

A group of PA volunteers monitors the quality of water in streams. 19 of those streams are at risk from Marcellus shale well drilling, but none of them have shown signs of contamination or even significant changes from drilling activities.

An article in the New Yorker discusses Republican efforts to tie permitting reform to raising the debt ceiling, and why Democrats should be excited about it.

The Freeport LNG plant is back to full capacity!

This could be a very big deal. The way that the Brent oil price is calculated is about to change, taking into effect oil delivered to Europe from the United States. The actual details are important, so click through and do some outside reading if this is important to you.

In related news, the amount of oil the U.S. exports increased in 2022, up 22%!

The U.S. is producing more and more natural gas, and shipping LNG worldwide will help use up all that gas.

Here’s an article on natural gas prices written from the point of view of a stock trader.

H.R. 1, The Lower Energy Costs Act, passed the House, but is unlikely to pass the Senate.

OPEC+ has announced a 1,000,000 bpd cut in production. Sheesh.

Natural gas prices are low, but production continues to increase, thanks mostly to oil production and the natural gas that is naturally associated with it.

The 4th Circuit has thrown out West Virginia’s water permit for the Mountain Valley Pipeline. Joe Manchin was not happy. Probably taking out his frustrations with himself for his own mistake on others. I’ll stop harping on that mistake someday, because everybody makes mistakes. Just not today.

And just like that, US LNG exports have hit a new record high.

This article by Irina Slav over at oilprice.com lists five major trends driving oil and gas in 2023.

Low natural gas prices are due to low natural gas consumption, and January and February of 2023 saw the lowest consumption for a January and February since 2017.

The Forest Service has issued its final Environmental Impact Statement, for the third time. Legal challenges will be filed.

West Virginia passed a bill that will promote the development of natural gas power plants. The coal industry had some arguments against it, of course, but the fact is we’re shipping jobs out of state when we ship the raw material out of state.