The State of Oil and Gas: January 15, 2021

We’re a few days late with this edition. Our apologies.

Today, gas prices are at $2.54/MMBtu, rig counts are at 373 and likely to continue climbing, and storage levels are at 3,196 Bcf which is higher than last year and higher than the five year average.

Production of LNG hit its highest level ever in November of 2020.

Demand for LNG is up, as supply is down.

A center-left policy organization is recommending to President-elect Biden that natural gas be part of our energy policy.

Oil and gas producers are expected to keep spending down through next year.

There’s a new record for longest lateral, 20,060 feet, beating the previous record holder by a little over 200 feet. That’s almost four miles long. Sheesh.

RBNEnergy has ten predictions for 2021. They got hammered on their 2020 predictions because of COVID, but now COVID is a known variable so maybe they’ll do better this year.

Demand for LNG will be up this year.

Electric cars need natural gas. Well, they need natural gas for the next decade or so.

Th Atlantic Coast Pipeline has a plan for reclaiming the land it has disturbed. That plan does not include pulling any installed pipe out of the ground. They also intend to keep the right of way agreements. Many of our clients will not have to worry about that, though, because we got expiration language in most of our agreements with ACP. Our agreements will end.

Cold weather is driving up natural gas prices, as it does.

OPEC+ will cut overall production, with Saudi Arabia cutting the lion’s share and Russia and Kazakhstan getting slight increases.

The Henry Hub spot price for natural gas averaged $2.05/MMBtu in 2020, according to the EIA. That’s the lowest in 25 years!

Mergers and Acquisitions activity will be down this year, which is usually a good sign that things are improving in the industry.

Seeking Alpha does a deep dive into predicting the price of natural gas. Prices should be up this year, but that just means that drillers will pick up the pace. The article mentions the possibility of going into next winter with the lowest storage levels ever. I’ll believe it when I see it.

The EIA is predicting natural gas prices to average just over $3.00/MMBtu this year. There have been other predictions as high as $4.00/MMBtu. $3.00 seems a lot more reasonable.

OPEC cut production, and now it is warning US producers not to make up the difference or they’ll see the price of oil drop again.

The EIA is predicting that US natural gas production will be down in 2021 compared to 2020.

2 thoughts on “The State of Oil and Gas: January 15, 2021

  1. I have 125.83 acres in Tyler county , and found out that Antero had been 8 wells that have been producing since 2015, have found out through Tyler county courthouse that 6 people have been receiving royalty payments, just found out that they owe me and my 2 siblings royalties , how do they calculate , do I need a lawyer before we sign anything, our lease says 12.5 interest and straight from well head , we owned the minerals , and they placed the 8 wells and we slipped through the cracks when they did the chain of title. We have been notified that they owe us, how can we calculate what is owed to us. Should we have a lawyer ? We want the bonus owed to us, interest and also to renegotiate the lease for the future,

    • Those are very reasonable demands on your part. If you “slipped through the cracks” then they really should negotiate with you about some things. However, I’m not exactly clear about what the situation is. You mention that your lease says “12.5 interest” which I assume is the royalty amount that the lease says they’re supposed to pay you. That’s a low royalty. It should be much higher than that. However, if you’re saying there was an old lease on the property that has been in force because of old wells on the property, then you should be discussing a modification of the old lease with Antero. I think it would be well worth it for us to spend some time on the phone. Give the office a call and set up an appointment to talk with me. 304-473-1403. Gather all the documents you have that apply to the situation and send us a copy.

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